The Nit
They fold too much, bluff only dry flops, and never bet the river light.
The Nit plays few hands and only puts money in with a strong one. They fold too much, and when they bet as the caller, raise, or bet the river, they have it. Even their one bluff is narrow: on a dry flop they fire a single c-bet with AK or AQ, then give up on the turn.
In short
- Bet when they check: half the pot folds their air and weaker pairs.
- Call a dry-flop c-bet with any pair: if they check the turn, bet.
- Barrel the river: every one-pair hand folds to half pot or more.
- Fold to their aggression: a caller's bet, any raise or any river bet is two pair or better.
Before the flop
The Nit opens about 11% of hands from under the gun and 23% from the button. Even their loosest range is tight.
Their 3-bet is the very top, about 3% of hands wherever they sit. From the blinds it's the grid below; the cutoff and button drop AQs (40 combos), and under the gun and the hijack drop JJ too (34 combos: QQ+ and AK).
When they just call an open from the blinds, they have the middle, shown below. JJ and better 3-bet instead. From the big blind they defend 12.5% of hands against a button open and fold the rest.
If you 3-bet them, they continue with the grid below and fold the rest: 84% of their button opens, 65% of their under-the-gun opens.
QQ+ and AK 4-bet (34 combos); JJ, TT and AQs call (16). Against an all-in they call with only KK+ and AKs.
After the flop
As the raiser, the Nit c-bets the flop with top pair or better (any kicker), with an overpair, with the nut flush draw or a combo draw, and on a dry flop with AK or AQ as two overcards. Everything else checks, including AJ, KQ and KJ.
The Nit's range is almost all big cards, so on a low, dry flop the c-bet is about half real hands and half AK or AQ:
Their under-the-gun open is 137 combos once the board cards are out. The 65 bets are 6 sets, 24 overpairs, 3 top pairs and the 32 combos of AK and AQ. AJ, KQ and KJ check.
So the c-bet cuts their range in half, and the half that bluffs is exactly AK and AQ. A check is the other 72 combos: the pairs under the ten and the two-overcard hands below AQ:
On the turn they keep betting only an overpair, top pair with a good kicker (ten or better), two pair or better, and the nut flush draw or a combo draw. AK and AQ give up. Here the bets are sets, overpairs and ATs:
On a wet flop even AK and AQ check (unless they hold the nut flush draw), because the overcards rule needs a dry board:
The 40 are sets, overpairs and 4 nut flush draws. A check is 71% of their range.
As the caller, they check everything but two pair or better, on every street. A bet from a Nit who called before the flop means two pair, a set or better.
Facing a bet, they:
| Their hand | Flop | Turn | River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two pair | Call any size | Call any size | Call any size |
| Overpair, top pair good kicker | Call any size | Call up to 2/3 pot | Call 1/3 pot only |
| Top pair weak kicker | Call any size | Fold | Fold |
| Second or third pair | Call 1/3 pot only | Fold | Fold |
| Nut flush draw, combo draw | Call any size | Call any size | — |
| Flush draw, open-ender | Call up to 2/3 pot | Call up to 2/3 pot | — |
| Gutshot | Fold | Fold | — |
Every one-pair hand folds to a raise. Two pair calls even a raise, but never raises.
A raise means a set or better, and they raise it every time. Two pair just calls.
On the river they bet only two pair or better, whether they raised before the flop or called. They never bluff.
In a 3-bet or 4-bet pot an overpair or top pair, good kicker is their strong hand. Whether they raised or called, they bet it on every street, the river included, and call any bet or raise with it, where in a single-raised pot it checks to the raiser and folds to a raise or to a big turn bet. Weaker pairs still fold, and they still never raise one pair.
Say you opened the button, the Nit 3-bet from the big blind (JJ+, AQs+ and AKo: 44 combos) and you called:
AK and AQ check, because this flop isn't dry. In a single-raised pot every one of those overpairs would fold to your raise.
Call the c-bet instead and they bet every overpair again on the turn:
The king beat QQ and JJ. In a single-raised pot AA would check this river too.
In a limped pot they bet top pair and overpairs on the flop, and on the turn only a strong top pair or an overpair, instead of checking everything but two pair or better.
Say you limped the button and the Nit checked the big blind, which they do with every hand below 88, AJs, KQs and AQo:
Behind a raise only the 30 two-pair-or-better combos would bet.
How to exploit them
- Steal their blinds. In the big blind they fold 87.5% of hands to a button open. Open wider from late seats when the Nit is in the blinds.
- 3-bet their late opens. Only TT+, AQs and AK continue (the grid under Before the flop): 84% of their button opens fold. When they 4-bet, let it go. It's QQ+ or AK.
- On a dry flop, call the c-bet with any pair and watch the turn. Half of it is AK or AQ with nothing, and that half gives up on every turn that misses. A turn check means exactly that, and any bet takes it. A turn bet is an overpair, a good top pair, two pair or better, or a big draw: fold your pair.
- Bet when they check. On a dry flop a check as the raiser is small pairs and the overcards below AQ (AJ, KQ, KJ): half the pot folds all of it, and even a third of the pot folds the overcards. On a wet flop a check as the raiser means no top pair and no big draw; as the caller a check means anything below two pair. Half the pot folds their air and weaker pairs (top pair, flush draws and open-enders still call).
- Barrel the river. They fold every one-pair hand to a river bet of half pot or more. After the Nit calls a flop bet and a turn bet, most of what's left is one pair:
They are QJ, KJ and AJ, and all 27 call a 2/3-pot turn bet first. The read also painted TT and 99, which fold.
- Fold to their aggression. A bet as the caller, any raise, and any river bet all mean two pair or better. Let go of top pair. You won't be wrong.
- In a 3-bet pot, don't bluff-raise their c-bet. Their overpairs call any raise there and bet again on every street, so a Nit who keeps betting a 3-bet pot has an overpair or better: fold one pair. The exception stays the dry flop, where AK and AQ c-bet and give up on the turn.
- In your reads, the quiet actions cut hardest: a raiser's flop check removes every top pair, a call removes air and sets, a caller's bet leaves two pair or better. The dry-flop c-bet is the one bet that keeps air in the range, and the air is exactly AK and AQ.
What this leak is worth. Small but steady: you win their blinds and small pots, rarely their stack. In the big blind they fold 87.5% of hands to a button open.
What their bet sizes tell you
Nothing. The Nit bets half the pot on a dry board, two-thirds on a medium board and three-quarters on a wet one, on every street, with a set and with AK alike. Raises are always three times your bet. What matters is whether they bet at all, and in which role.