Auto-profit steals
One number tells you when a steal wins with any two cards.
Your chart folds ten-four on the button, and against most players that's right. But a chart is built for an average opponent. When the player in the big blind folds too much, a steal makes money with any two cards, even if you give up every time they fight back. That's an auto-profit steal, and it's one of the easiest exploits in poker: it needs one number and a little arithmetic.
In short
- A steal wins the blinds when they fold and loses your open when they don't.
- Work out the fold rate you need: your open ÷ (your open + the pot).
- If the big blind folds more often than that, every hand makes money.
- Against the Nit, a button steal wins about 1bb a time with any two cards.
- Against players who defend, steal only with hands that play well when called.
The one number
Folded to you on the button, a 2.5bb open risks 2.5bb to win the 1.5bb of blinds. Say you give up whenever they call or raise. Then you win 1.5bb when they fold and lose 2.5bb when they don't, so they have to fold more than 2.5 ÷ (2.5 + 1.5) = 62.5% of the time for the steal to profit.
| Your open | Risk | They must fold more than |
|---|---|---|
| 2bb | 2bb | 57% |
| 2.5bb | 2.5bb | 62.5% |
| 3bb | 3bb | 67% |
| 5bb (live) | 5bb | 77% |
The bigger the open, the more folds you need. From the small blind the math is the same: you've already posted 0.5bb, so a 3bb open adds 2.5bb to win the 1.5bb in the middle.
How often the Nit folds
In the big blind the Nit plays only 166 of 1,326 combos against a button open, 12.5% of hands. They call with some and 3-bet the best, and everything else folds.
87.5% is far above the 62.5% you need. Win 1.5bb 87.5% of the time and lose 2.5bb the other 12.5%, and the steal earns about +1.0bb, before counting a single pot you win after they call.
That's why it's called auto-profit: the cards you hold don't matter. Your hand only decides how much more you win on the times they call.
Every villain's big blind
Here's how often each villain folds their big blind to a steal, and what opening any two cards earns if you always give up when they play back:
| Villain | Folds | Any two at 2.5bb | Any two at 5bb (live) |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Nit | 87.5% | +1.00bb | +0.69bb |
| The Short Stacker | 83% | +0.83bb | +0.41bb |
| The TAG | 83% | +0.82bb | +0.39bb |
| The LAG | 64% | +0.05bb | −0.86bb |
| Calling Station | 51% | −0.46bb | −1.69bb |
| The Maniac | 49.5% | −0.52bb | −1.78bb |
The LAG sits right at the line: a 2.5bb steal with junk barely breaks even, and a live-sized one loses. Calling Station and the Maniac play about half their hands from the big blind, so stealing with junk against them throws chips away.
When they defend, pick your hands
Against a big blind that plays back, a steal has to make money after they call too. That means hands that hit flops and play well: pairs, suited aces, suited connectors, big cards. Against Calling Station that still works, because they call and then pay off your good hands. Against the Maniac, open hands you're happy to call a 3-bet with, since a 3-bet from them is often a bluff.
At a real table
In Exploit Lab the other seats fold, so only the villain's big blind matters. At a real table both blinds have to fold. Multiply their fold rates: two Nits in the blinds fold together 87.5% × 87.5% = 77% of the time, still above 62.5%. One loose player in either blind can take the auto-profit away, so check both before you steal with junk.
And a steal is auto-profit only until they notice. A real Nit whose blind you take every orbit may start defending. When they call or 3-bet your opens more often, go back to stealing with hands that play well when called. Exploitative play, under When they adjust, has the signs to watch for.
Try it
Play the Nit and watch for hands folded to you in the cutoff, on the button or in the small blind with the Nit in the big blind. Open them all, whatever you're dealt. Then give up when they play back. You'll lose a few pots and win a lot more.